Over the last few days, Ben and I (this is a joint post) have been trying to reach agreement on our understanding of risk. Ultimately we want to identify some new and effective methods to articulate the risks we may identify. The discussions were held at lunchtime, and OK, things got a bit silly. Nevertheless, we think there is a lesson to be learned somewhere in the example below. As such, please do add a comment if you can find one… We’ve also submitted this as an idea to the BBC’s Genius programme.

Objective: Introduce consolidated risk gauge to simplify the (human : machine) interface. The merits of a such a device are illustrated in the motor-car example below.

Modern cars have a bewildering array of dials and warning lights on a dashboard – but are they really necessary?

Consider just one of these dials: the speedometer. Does a driver really care what his absolute speed, based on centuries old units and the period of the Earth’s orbit around the sun, is? The answer is no: a driver simply wishes to know he will get to his destination without incident: be it crashing, getting a speeding ticket or missing his appointment.

It is therefore proposed that the speedometer is replaced by a risk dial – which interprets prevailing driving conditions, speed limits and navigation plans – e.g., using existing GPS technology – to calculate a risk metric. For example, if the driver exceeds a speed limit on a road, the risk gauge will go up, as speeding tickets are more likely. The driver can then elect to change his driving style to reduce this risk.

This proposal can be extended further. Consider the fuel gauge. The driver does not care about how much is in the tank per se – he simply wishes to understand the risk of running out of fuel on his journey. This dial could therefore be replaced too, by one measuring this risk. Note that the speedometer and fuel gauges have been simplified to share a common unit – one of risk – and hence can share the same gauge! By extension of the same argument, all dials and warning lights can be incorporated into one single dial of “consolidated risk” – thus addressing the complexity of modern car dashboards.

Missed a car service? Risk increases. Parked in a dodgy area? Risk increases. Such a metric would help encourage drivers to minimise risk, and even find alternate transport methods. This conveniently brings the proposal onto its zenith: consider how much more pleasant and minimalist a Jumbo Jet’s cockpit would be if there was just a single risk gauge.